OPTIMIZED

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZED · MICHAUD RESAMPLING (500 ITERATIONS)

Multi-asset allocation across US Equity, International, Bonds, and Alternatives. Minimum return constraint 6%. Benchmark: 40/30/30 strategic allocation. Optimization targets maximum Sharpe under resampled uncertainty. Current allocation overweights alternatives (+5.2pp vs benchmark) and underweights bonds (−3.1pp).

Annual Return
8.7%
vs 6.2% benchmark
Volatility
11.3%
annualized
Sharpe Ratio
0.59
rf = 2%
Max Drawdown
-14.2%
peak-to-trough
Sortino Ratio
0.81
downside risk adjusted
Optimized Allocation Weight · Return · Risk contribution
ETFWeightAnn. ReturnContributionAllocation
SPY
US Equity
12.8%+10.2%1.3%
IEFA
International
11.4%+5.8%0.7%
GOLD
Alternatives
14.6%+12.1%1.8%
IEF
Bonds
13.2%+2.1%0.3%
VWO
International
8.7%+4.3%0.4%
BTC
Alternatives
6.1%+42.5%2.6%
XIC.TO
International
7.2%+6.9%0.5%
IFRA
Alternatives
9.8%+7.4%0.7%
SHV
Bonds
8.4%+4.8%0.4%
VNQ
Alternatives
4.3%-2.1%-0.1%
Others
XLU · XLP · EWJ · XCB · HEDGE
3.5%+3.4%0.1%
Asset Class Breakdown Optimized vs Benchmark
US Equity
SPY · XLU · XLP
18.4%
International
IEFA · XIC · EWJ · VWO
27.3%
Bonds
IEF · SHV · XCB
22.8%
Alternatives
GOLD · IFRA · VNQ · BTC · HEDGE
31.5%
Benchmark DeltaActive tilts vs 40/30/30

US Equity

Below benchmark

−5.6pp
24.0% bench

International

Above benchmark

+3.3pp
24.0% bench

Bonds

Below benchmark

−7.2pp
30.0% bench

Alternatives

Above benchmark

+9.5pp
22.0% bench
Cumulative Returns Optimized vs Benchmark · 2022–2024
Stress Scenarios Portfolio impact under historical shocks
−18.4%

2008-Style Crash

US equity −30%, international −25%, bonds flat, gold +8%. Full risk-off with flight to quality.

→ Portfolio loss $184K on $1M · Recovery: 14 months
−12.7%

COVID-Style Crisis

Global −20% except gold. V-shaped recovery. Bonds act as buffer. Crypto crashes 40%.

→ Portfolio loss $127K · Recovery: 5 months
−6.8%

Rate Hike Shock

Bonds −10%, duration impact on IEF. Equities resilient. Gold flat. Infrastructure benefits.

→ Moderate impact · Alternatives hedge partially offsets
−22.1%

Stagflation

Equities −15%, bonds −12%, only gold and commodities positive. Worst case for 60/40.

→ Severe loss · Gold allocation provides partial hedge
Monte Carlo Simulation 10,000 paths · 1-year horizon
5TH PERCENTILE
−8.3%
MEDIAN
+7.9%
95TH PERCENTILE
+26.4%
Risk Metrics Tail risk · Diversification · Factor exposure
VaR 95% (daily)
Worst daily loss at 95% confidence
−1.52%
CVaR 95% (daily)
Expected loss beyond VaR
−2.31%
Diversification Ratio
Weighted vol / portfolio vol
1.84x
Beta to SPY
Market sensitivity
0.48
Tracking Error
Active risk vs benchmark
4.7%
Excess Return
Alpha over benchmark
+2.5%